Thanks to our friends at the MVCA, here is an update on Mazinaw water levels:

Watershed conditions were heavily influenced by the severe Level 3 drought experienced during the summer of 2025. Significantly below-average rainfall throughout the season caused water levels across the region to drop well below normal.

At Mazinaw Lake, levels fell to 267.57 metres above sea level (masl) in early September, slightly below targets outlined in the Mississippi River Water Management Plan. Many lakes and rivers across the watershed experienced similarly low conditions.

As of now, Mazinaw Lake sits at approximately 266.98 masl, which is about 5 centimetres below the historical average for this time of year. These lower levels reflect both the lingering effects of last summer’s drought and operational management intended to provide additional storage capacity ahead of the spring freshet, when melting snow and rainfall can cause water levels to rise rapidly. The dam is currently set to winter conditions with six logs installed (three in each bay) out of a possible fourteen.

Snowpack conditions across the watershed are currently above normal, which will play a key role in shaping the spring runoff. Measurements taken at monitoring sites in the upper watershed—including Bon Echo, Mackavoy Lake, and Buckshot—show an average snow water equivalent (SWE) of 141 millimetres, or about 116% of normal. Snow water equivalent refers to the amount of liquid water stored within the snowpack. Across the broader watershed, both snow depth and SWE are roughly 150% of normal levels.

While ice thickness is not monitored on Mazinaw Lake itself, nearby Shabomeka Lake recorded ice thickness of just over 400 millimetres as of mid-February, indicating substantial ice cover in the region. Looking ahead to spring, due to current warmer temperatures and rainfall expected we have issued a Flood Outlook Statement for the entire Mississippi River watershed.

With the above-average snowpack, there is potential for higher-than-average peak water levels this spring. However, the severity and timing of spring runoff will largely depend on how quickly temperatures rise and how much rainfall occurs during the melt period. If current forecasts hold, the combination of warmer temperatures and rain could trigger snowmelt and runoff to begin as early as this weekend, potentially leading to an earlier-than-normal spring peak in water levels.